I upgraded to 15.2 and still get the failure. Thanks for pointing out the method to force a backup from the TM settings. But after doing that it won’t let me eject the external drive, it tells me that some program is using the drive. I had to force eject, which I don’t like doing, even though I know no program is actively using. I suspect TM is hanging onto the drive as it expects to do another backup in an hour. Online I found I can get around this without force ejecting if I sign out of my account or turn off the computer. This is too bad.
I would be far less concerned with the loss of bootable backups if Migration Assistant hadn’t failed me miserably on a number of occasions.
Now I’ve retired, there’s not the urgency to have machines running again in minutes after a failure, but if I was still working it would be a proper PIA.
Having said this, even for my personal machines it would be very annoying to wait for a lengthy restore to be functional again. Throw in my disdain and distrust of MA and I’m not too pleased - despite being fully cognisant of why they’re heading this direction.
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