I had not been paying much attention, but I just noticed that, for example, 20.0TB Toshiba MG10 Series 7200RPM SATA pricing has more than doubled in almost exactly 6 months. I am just curious, did this happen gradually, or immediately … due to perhaps: tariffs?
to digress, I notice ssd drives showing about 95% increase, this was explained to me as general bumps in prices due to the tech industry AI sector I would assume tariffs has something to do as well
further thoughts?
To paraphrase Ernest Hemingway, it happened in two ways: gradually then all of a sudden. The factors you cite, with demand greatly outstripping supply and an exogenous pricing shock, were major contributors as well as product production shifts, exchange rates, labor issues, and geopolitical events.
I’d also say demand for HD’s/SSD’s is fairly inelastic. If you need storage, you need storage and you have to buy it. You might have to compromise on the amount if prices have increased (for a PlayStation, say, buying a 1TB drive rather than a 2TB) but there isn’t really any way to avoid the purchase.
Large HDDs are needed by data centers and the services that they run. This is not just AI (although that is a big factor), but for many other services.
Some of it is a result of the massive demand for flash storage, which started a year or so ago. Companies that were setting up massive all-flash servers are finding it impossible to get enough SSDs, so they are now setting up hybrid SSD/HDD servers, driving up those prices.
We’re in a bubble, and like all bubbles, it will burst and prices will drop. But there’s no way of knowing if this will be in a few months or a few years.
Which really sucks if you need it now. But if you don’t have an immediate need, I’d just wait.
I’m sure tariffs are contributing, but with a market this volatile - both on demand and on the tariffs - it’s impossible to tease out that factor from all the others.
Also HDDs contain cache memory.
Edit to explain…
The AI demand for memory is driving up the prices of all kinds of memory: High-Bandwith Memory (HBM), DDR5 RAM, NAND Flash, GDDR6/7 video RAM. GPUs and AI accelerators demand HBM, and as manufacturing capacity shifts to make more high-margin HBM, the other memory supply grows short.
HDD drives contain DRAM caches and in some cases flash memory. The DRAM is used to improve performance by buffering data while the drive is s.l.o.w.l.y reading or writing to the rusty metal.
But the HDD caches are small compared to other memory usage. The 20 TB Toshiba drive’s cache is only 512 MB. So, a guestimate is the cost to Toshiba would only rise from a couple dollars per unit to twice as many couple of dollars.
re-checking: is your comment referring to cost cutting benefits or efficiency of setting up hybrid servers due to the current costs (prices) of this technology
To sort of continue … I also observed the bump when viewing OWC/Macsales the doubling of prices for their portable ssd drives.
At some point I steered away from other manufactures like LaCie mainly because I found the failure rate (personal experience) not worth the trouble of not buying what was for me the more reliable Mac centric OWC drives.
But I notice at Apple, the LaCie 2TB ssd drive in orange coating, pretty darn inexpensive
thoughts on the current set of LaCie drives, anyone
I just read this article:
It looks like the HDD price hikes (especially for 18TB+ drives) are because Hyperscalers (thanks to the demands of AI products) need more storage than the industry can manufacture.
Because manufacturers can’t keep up with demand and “in the seller’s market, the advantage will always go to the customer with the deepest pockets and willing to make the largest purchase.”
But (and I’m now speaking only for myself), I still think this bubble will burst. I just don’t know when.
I would assume something similar with the ssd blades/chips/boards … not sure what they are referred to for the various little portables … amazing little drives actually …
I think the, somewhat, hyper-competition would be impacting that market too. Even if the bubble burps, I think the tide has risen to a new base as well … to mix a whole lot of metaphors and analogies LOL
Maybe this is an opportunity to make money on the market distortion. AI suggests:
But all this may already be priced in by smarter people than me. And the markets can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent (A. Gary Shilling, Forbes, 1993)
It’s always very risky trying to invest in a bubble, or to engage in any form of market timing, because things can collapse with little-to-no warning. And when it does, the institutional investors will dump their shares (driving the price down) before you realize anything is happening, leaving you with a great big capital loss to show for it.
So you’ll have to sell before it bursts. Then if the shares continue to rise, you’ll kick yourself about how much more you could have earned.
If you’re investing as a hobby and think speculation is a fun kind of game, and you can afford to lose your investment, sure, give it a shot.
But if you’re investing for a goal (e.g., retirement), then absolutely not. Choose investments that you and your advisor think will best let you achieve your goal and don’t concern yourself with trying to “beat the market” or “make a killing”.
Just want to add the story behind the bubble has been going on for a while and is well known to both institutional and retail investors. So a lot of the gains have already been priced into the stocks. Plus a key thing traders need to “beat the market”, up or down, is edge. If you don’t have some kind of edge over other market participants, it’s even harder to exploit bubbles.