I wonder if part of it is related to not being able to produce as many shows as they wanted due to the pandemic.
TV+ is clearly not doing well, and people are clearly not switching from free to paid subscriptions. Netflix just released its 4th quarter results, and its growth in revenue and subscriptions are through the roof. The profits are so strong that the company is now well into the black with cash reserves that they no longer need to borrow money:
I think that Apple jumped the gun by launching TV+ before it has a big enough catalog of content. And personally speaking, I got a new iPad recently and didnāt even sign up for the free TV+ trial. There are about a million things I want to watch on Netflix, and nothing on TV+ that Iām really interested in. If I wanted to add another streaming video service, there are others that have more stuff I want to watch.
IMHO, Tim Cook should have bought Fox, including National Geographic and Rupert Murdochās % of Hulu rather than let Disney have it. Disney already had an incredible, unequaled back catalog before they bought the Fox stuff. And there are already other streamers out there, including Amazon Prime, HBO, with better libraries and content in development. TV+ just doesnāt currently have the scale or the amount of content in development; I hope this will improve in the not too distant future.
One more thingā¦Apple got into the entertainment services business with iMusic because Steve Jobs knew they needed content to sell iPods. Services have grown from there, but they all exist because they are critical to selling Apple hardware. They could sell more Apple TVs with better TV+ content.
There are only so many services people are willing to pay for.
Right now my household subscribes to Netflix, Hulu, Disney+ and Amazon Prime (primarily for the free shipping, not for the video catalog). We really donāt want to pay for yet another.
So if Apple wants my business, they are going to have to produce something good enough to convince me to cancel one of the others and switch to them. Thatās a really hard challenge, and one I donāt think they can achieve, unless one of their competitors fails catastrophically.
1 Like
They donāt have that much content in production to begin with. Netflix started out with thousands of shows before they began producing their own. And I think an equally big problem is that the exclusive content Apple has been delivering isnāt interesting or varied enough to attract hoards of paid subscribers. The demand for streaming content is there and vastly bigger than ever. Apple should have started with a bigger, broader and better catalog. There are so many streamers out there with better libraries.
What could they get, though? Disney has Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, and Disney content. HBO has DC and Game of Thrones and Harry Potter and a bunch of other stuff. Amazon is getting Lord of the Rings. Whatās left? I watched āMorning Showā and thought it was OK, but itās really not the type of thing I usually want to watch. āGreyhoundā was an OK war movie. Right now Iām in the middle of āWandaVisionā (Disney), āThe Expanseā (Amazon), and āLethal Whiteā (HBOMax), the BBCās television adaptation of J. K. Rowlingās fourth detective novel (all five of which I really like). I just finished āDisenchantmentā (Netflix), āThe Mandalorianā (Disney), and āHis Dark Materialsā (HBOMax). TV+ doesnāt really have anything similar at all. I just looked up on Wikipedia what Apple TV+ has produced (most of them I didnāt even remember), and nothing there interests me that much. I subscribed to HBOMax for the Snyder cut, the DC shows, and it has a bunch of other things Iām happy to watch. Itās been a while since I last looked at anything on TV+, even though itās in my face every time I turn on the Apple TV.
They most certainly have the bucks sitting in the bank to do this. They could easily have acquired already produced content by bidding for some indy stuff at the film festivals. They need movies and shows of the caliber of The Mandolorian, The Crown, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Manchester By The Sea, The Handmaidās Tale, Stranger Things. Netflix has concerts and shows from BeyoncĆ©, Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift, Justin Timberlake, Dolly Parton, and stand up comedy from Dave Chappel, Richard Prior, etc. Music and over one billion devices already gives Apple traction in the stand up space.
Apple TV+ has only 3% of the US Market share, and Iām sure the vast majority of the 3% is free subscriptions that an Apple hardware purchaser is given:
But Apple isnāt trying to complete with Netflix. I donāt know why everyone thinks thatās their goal. They are much more along the lines of Amazon Prime Video ā who would pay for that on itās own without the free shipping and other Prime benefits?
If you see it through that lens ā a convenient, in-expensive add-on or part of a bundle ā itās doing just fine. Probably a bit behind schedule because of the pandemic, but Apple doesnāt need (or want) 50,000 shows. A hundred shows with several hits is plenty ā and theyāre pretty close to that goal. (Shows like Ted Lasso, Defending Jacob, Mythic Quest, etc. are great and are already hits.)
Iām actually thinking the Netflix approach is starting to backfire. Iāve been a continuous Netflix subscriber since they first launched in the 1990s (yup). I love the streaming idea initially, especially when it was a heavy back catalog of old TV shows. But then they lost the rights to those TV shows and now itās mostly original content and thereās so much of it, I never watch anything! Partly thatās because my internet is weak so streaming of any kind isnāt great and I donāt do it much, but most itās just thereās too much content. Iāve subscribed to Disney+ since it launched and pretty much just watched Mandalorian. On HBO Max I watched The Flight Attendant. I canāt remember the last thing I watched on Prime, though I have been wanting to catch up on The Expanse.
Now as long as the streaming services are all cheap ā $5/month ā I donāt mind subscribing to a bunch of them and just watching a show or two on each. But Netflix keeps raising their prices and are soon going cause me to drop it as Iām not going to pay $21/month for a couple DVDs a month and 4-5 movies/shows a year. Whenever I check it Iām overwhelmed with stuff and everything is a huge series with 50 episodes to catch up on and I donāt want that. At least with ATV+ there are only a few episodes and a few shows. To me, thatās starting to become a positive!
I saw that, but how does that compare to this report that came out at the same time?
HBO literally developed the streaming market by pulling The Sopranos, Sex And The City, The Wire, etc, out of thin air. Amazon is renown for picking up a rather unknown directorās Manchester By The Sea at a Sundance for peanuts, giving it limited theater distribution so it could qualify for Oscars and other rewards. And because A Handmaidās Tale had been sitting on the shelf for over a decade, Amazon got it a good price to develop the exclusive series. Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga did quite well at the Oscars and the box office with the fourth iteration of A Star Is Born. And how many versions of Richard III, Great Expectations, Les Miserables, The Producers, etc.?
Thereās plenty of new stuff waiting to be discovered out there, and old gold waiting to be polished. Apple can afford to be picky; they just need to do better than they have been.
I would bet that very few folks are paying for a subscription to Apple TV+ on a stand-alone basis; they are either getting free as a premium for purchasing a product from Apple or have subscribed to Apple One to get other services in addition to TV+.
Although I can afford to subscribe to multiple services, I donāt have the time to watch enough to make each subscription valuable. Iām thinking of moving to a model where I will subscribe to one or two services because I see something attractive there and unsubscribe when I see nothing that I want to see. I can see also just running a rotation of subscriptions to simply watch the various services on a catch-up basis.
For services going forward, I think they either need to bundle themselves with other non-streaming attractions (Amazon Prime, Apple One), provide discounts for long-term subscriptions, or (equivalently) penalties for short-term subscriptions.
You are right about the J.D, Power report, it is a better study than the Just Watch one that I quoted. But TV+ is competing with Netflix, etc., just as much as Music competes with Spotify, Amazon Music Unlimited, and YouTube Music. And neither report breaks out the % of free vs. paid TV+ subscriptions. I still think that Apple wouldnāt be extending the free period by six months if a decent % of people were paying to renew their subscriptions. A few days ago Variety ran very interesting article:
Though it was developed to help sell Apple hardware, iTunes and Music subscriptions have always sold well on Android and Windows devices since the day the service became available on them. People pay $9.99 a month for individual Music subscriptions, or $14.99 for six people. There is a three month free trial. Even though Music profits are probably minuscule, they are are a big contributing factor for the gross margins from Apple makes from its hardware. But most people donāt want to renew their free TV+ subscription for only $4.99 per month. Apple clearly needs better TV+ content if it wants to build their paid subscriptions and boost Apple TV sales.
Thatās roughly what weāre thinking as well. We subscribed to CBS All Access for a month or two to watch Star Trek Discovery and Picard, and then dropped it. We might go back when more seasons of those are available. Itās slightly fussier, but much cheaper than buying or renting via iTunes, when thatās even an option.
To me itās a bit frustrating to recognize that essentially the streaming services have managed to return us to the old days of cable bundles.
I was really happy in the interim period where I would pay to watch exactly the one show or movie I was interested in. No bundles, no subscriptions, no getting lured to watch a whole lot more than what you reasonably have time to spend on. 
1 Like
So you havenāt actually watched any of it? Youāre judging it based on trailers and reviews?
I thought The Morning Show was very good. Ted Lasso is very good also.
2 Likes
Well of course. That is usually how I decide if I want to pay for something. Iāll watch a trailer and read reviews about it. If Iām not thrilled with that, I donāt pay and hence I donāt watch the whole thing. I think I was quite forthcoming about what I based my judgement on. Rest assured Iām aware these things are personal preferences. Iāll take note you appear to have liked it very much. Thatās great.
The Morning Show, For All Mankind, Ted Lasso, Defending Jacob and Greyhound have all gotten Good Metacritic.com scores (from both critics and non-critics). Considerably more people enjoyed them than not.
1 Like