Originally published at: https://tidbits.com/2020/04/27/bloomberg-reports-apple-will-start-transitioning-the-mac-to-arm-in-2021/
After years of rumors about how Apple was planning to transition the Mac from Intel-based CPUs to its own ARM-based processors, Bloomberg reports that the move will start in 2021.
1 Like
What does that mean for the future of Boot Camp and the ability to run Windows natively on Mac hardware?
1 Like
Ditto: VMWare Fusion is my Windows computer. How slow will it be if ARM needs to emulate an Intel processor? I donāt want to carry two laptops on the road!
[OTOH, this is Bloomberg. The story could be a complete fabrication.]
1 Like
These are good questions, and we wonāt know the answers until (and if) Apple makes the machines available to developers.
While Bloomberg as a publication has done some sketchy things, Mark Gurman is the lead author on this byline, and he has a long track record of good reporting.
3 Likes
All I can say here is that, due to Appleās extreme secrecy, itās very hard to accurately report things like this.
You may recall that journalists were reporting about future Intel Macs for many years before one actually shipped. They heard about the internal development work and guessed about possible release dates.
This may be something similar. I think it is likely that Apple has ARM-based desktop systems running some internal build of macOS. Such a project allows Apple to make the switch on short notice because most of the software development has already been done. But the actual date they make the switch will depend on other factors beyond the ability to do so. Could be in January. Could be in three years.
Even if a journalist gets an internal memo with a date, it still might not happen at that time because plans like this can be very fluid up until the point that they direct the factories to start mass production.
3 Likes
FWIW, it was also reported by Ming-Chi Kuo in February, who also has a long track record of good reporting on Apple future plans.
3 Likes
I just hope this transition happens from the bottom (think Mac mini, 12" MacBook) rather than on the MBP.
If Iām lucky Apple will soon releases the rumored 14" MBP which Iād most likely buy in an instant to replace my 2013 13" MBP. That way, I should be set for a while so this whole ARM thing can play out before I have to make difficult decisions again.
To me x86 compatibility, BootCamp, and VMs are not something to sacrifice lightly. If I give up all that (or at least have to give up virtualization for emulation) I would want to see at least something like x3 performance or 2-day battery life. I remember the VirtualPC days all too well. Nothing Iād ever want to go back to.
This news from 2017 is the reason Iāll bet that Apple will push ARM Macs out the door once the current pandemic abates and economies start to stabilize:
Iām also holding off for a new ARM MacBook Pro or maybe an Air; whichever comes first.
It would make sense for this transition to happen from the bottom. The happiest users at the beginning would probably be people who depend very little on 3rd party software. There are plenty of people who just use Apple supplied software and the web. One of the most important apps to have native apps early on would be Google Chrome and Firefox.
For my office have MS Office and all Adobe apps including some plugins would be critical to our adoption.
I am hopeful for Intel emulation but I am not sure how they would do it. Last go around Apple depended on Rosetta which was licensed from another company, which has since been bought by IBM some years ago.
3 Likes
Maybe, but I wouldnāt assume that Apple is going to do something simply because Microsoft did it a few years ago. If I remember correctly, very few people actually liked those ARM-based Windows laptops. They were slow and incompatible with most applications. Thatās not a user experience Apple is going to want for its customers.
1 Like
You are right about this, but what I thought at the time, and still do, was that the Windows ARM stuff were crappy machines running crappy Windows software. IIRC, most developers, including those from Microsoft, didnāt upgrade and optimize applications to run better on ARM, so there were problems. There still are. MS also didnāt have any experience out in the wild with ARM stuff until the Surface stuff was released a year or two ago. Apple has years of real world experience with ARM since they let them loose in their iOS devices since March 2010:
I expect Apple will do a better job, overall, with homegrown ARM MacBooks, MacBook Pros and Macs. They will optimize their software and encourage, or twist arms, for developers to do so. Only a few Windows manufacturers have built ARM machines, and I havenāt read much about Windows ARMs selling like hot cakes. Having a laptop that runs for 24 hours without a charge is their only advantage over Mac laptops to date, but itās a compelling advantage.
1 Like
Iāve read this sentiment in some reports where an ARM transition is claimed to also be the result of Intelās release schedule supposedly holding Apple back. But after looking at some Intel CPU generations and their releases Iāve come to realize that must be a whole bunch of bull.
The 10th-gen Sunny Cove CPUs Apple just put into their MBA, well those had been available for more than half a year by the time Apple used them. The Mac mini CPUs are from 2018, while in the same class as the mini uses, Intel has supplied two full generations in between. The Coffee Lake i9 Apple used for the 16" MBP was also available more than a half year before Apple finally made the update.
So maybe Apple isnāt happy with the power consumption or the performance, but they are by no means waiting on Intel. These days, itās rather Intel waiting for Apple to finally start using their latest CPUs. On average it takes Apple at least half a year to get their mobile Macs updated after Intel has released new suitable CPUs. To appreciate how much of a step backwards this is, just compare to a couple years ago when Apple would launch new MBPs days/weeks before Intel made those CPUs commonly available on the market.
Of course they are not waiting on Intel any longer. Intel did not move quickly enough new technology; they were preventing Apple from meeting their goals. I strongly suspect one of the reasons they bought Intelās modem business is because they want to back away from reliance on Intel altogether. It was never a match made in heaven. Thereās a good analysis about how Intel has a history of not meeting Appleās goals for speed, battery life and reliability here:
https://venturebeat.com/2020/04/23/why-apple-macs-getting-12-core-arm-chips-in-2021-would-be-huge/
The article mentions that A chip Macs wonāt need fans, which for many people, including me, will be a big plus, among all the other major advantages. And Apple is probably giggling in the background over Microsoftās bungled launch of A chip Windows machines that was discussed above. Apple is moving ahead and Intel is playing the fiddle as its market burns.
Yeah, Iām not buying that. If Apple were indeed so eagerly waiting on Intel they wouldnāt waste months releasing updated Macs with the latest and greatest Intel has to offer. Itās not like Intelās CPUs drop their power draw or magically run faster just because you install them 6 months late. Appleās tardiness in Mac updates has absolutely nothing to do with Intelās release schedule, and most likely much more with what they choose to focus on these days.
Why would they want to wait on Intel when they are obviously nearing the resolution of a divorce process with Intel? It could be a production/delivery issue, and Intel delays have caused problems for Apple before. But like with person to person divorce negotiations, I think that itās also very likely that Intel might not have wanted to negotiate a price within the range Apple is willing to pay. And for a very big % of the market, that particular chip is not likely to be game changer at all.
I donāt believe that for a second.
A-series chips generate heat, and they can generate a lot when operating under a heavy load, just like all other chips. Your phone can survive without a fan only because the OS aggressively throttles performance in order to prevent overheating.
On a desktop/laptop configuration, youāve got much more power (bigger battery and/or AC power) available and more space to install heat sinks and fans. Most people will probably prefer a fan (assuming itās not too loud) over thermal throttling, since it will let their applications run at full speed nearly all the time.
2 Likes
Neither do I. While certain A chips (not just the ones in our iPhones and iPads) will no doubt be able to run fanless (the Intel CPU in the 12" MB did that just fine already years ago), an A chip with substantial enough performance overhead so Apple could slap it in an iMac (or a MBP) will most definitely require active cooling. Quite possibly less of it, but on pro-level machines with pro-level CPU performance fans arenāt going anywhere.
Funny anecdote, our latest server room is the loudest one weāve ever built and it was equipped with the best performance per Watt CPUs weāve ever procured. Power savings were immediately invested towards higher density processing. 
2 Likes
Shoot! A fanless Mac has been one of my longtime dreamsā¦listening to music without background noise without ear or headphones.
How sensitive are your ears? My computers are a Mac mini and a Mac Book Air. Although they both have fans, they only rev up when I run an app that stresses them out. The rest of the time, the fan noise is not audible over the sounds produced by my apps (usually iTunes or streaming videos) and the normal background sounds of home.
1 Like
The 12ā MacBook that was discontinued last year was always fan-less. Not a powerful computer, but it got the job done for a lot of people. Never had a fan.
I think itās pretty possible that the first ARM based Mac notebooks will be like the 12ā MacBook in design and intended purpose (e.g., not intended for the pro market, meant for portability rather than power) and I think itās very possible that Apple will design it without a fan.
1 Like