Benefits of the AI Bubble

Just want to add that there is a difference between lending and investing.

There’s an old saying that actually has some truth to it: “equity is a pillow but debt is a stick”. That’s because lenders can—and do—force companies to shut down because they cannot meet the payment or balance sheet requirements of a loan but investors, as long as they have the appetite, can keep injecting capital into a money-losing company they believe in (classic example: Amazon).

In theory, at least. The current data center construction craze is a lot like what goes on in professional sports. Teams pit different cities against each other, demand tax breaks, receive public funding for lavish stadiums…the list goes on and on and on!

I wonder how similar this AI development is to what we observed with ride shares many years ago.

Uber and Lyft initially appeared dirt cheap to customers so everybody started using them. But it turned out, these companies were just burning through heaps of loaned $ that de facto were subsidizing a service sold below cost. At some point the VCs et al. got tired of paying for everybody’s cheap cabs so they forced changes. Uber and Lyft got expensive and rider numbers dipped. They never became as cheap again, but now I guess they are actually making a profit.

Meanwhile, competition to their nice comfortable little duopoly did arrive in the form of driverless cabs (Waymo et al.) and because there’s no driver (especially in areas where drivers make a min wage and need to be provided at least some benefits) they held the promise of being able to undercut the now expensive Uber/Lyft duopoly. But gosh big surprise, that didn’t happen. You don’t get a driver but you still pay top $ for your ride. So by now I guess stock markets are reaping some benefit from all this, but customers still seem stuck paying essentially what they paid back in the day, at least now with the benefit of no longer sitting in dirty smelly Crown Vics with card readers that supposedly always just went out of service. :laughing:

The basic idea is similar. Start out with lowball prices that lose money but squeeze out the original competitors, and when they’re gone, jack up the prices and coin money. The actual formula for getting rich quick is more like “Pump it up, Sell it off, and run away very fast”. The “smart” investor wants to get in early, raise the stock price, and cash out before they have to actually run a business, which is hard work.

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Don’t forget there are two sides to every trade: a seller and a buyer. If something has an inflated current value or unpredictable future value, then it’s on the buyer if things don’t work out.